Blue:
Don't know if you are aware of this, but when logged on the Pinnacle site, you have a choice to use the "static line display" or the "dynamic line display". The "dynamic line display" is immediate and automatically refreshed when the line changes. I watch this carefully the last 10-15 minutes before gametime. It is slightly advanced of our "live lines". You get a better feel for the late action. Now, that being said, I never make a decision based on the Pinnacle line movement. Just watch the trend waiting for the best price I can get.
Don't know if you are aware of this, but when logged on the Pinnacle site, you have a choice to use the "static line display" or the "dynamic line display". The "dynamic line display" is immediate and automatically refreshed when the line changes. I watch this carefully the last 10-15 minutes before gametime. It is slightly advanced of our "live lines". You get a better feel for the late action. Now, that being said, I never make a decision based on the Pinnacle line movement. Just watch the trend waiting for the best price I can get.
Lawrence:
Late line movement is caused by the amount placed on the side or total, but doesn't mean it was caused by a "sharp" or "wiseguy". It is caused by the system picking up the amount of money wagered. At Pinnacle, seems that a dime will move it slightly (i.e. -110 to -111). The wager could come from anyone with the money. Thinking that it is a sharp move is an oversimplification and can cost a player who is strictly playing the movement without knowing the source behind the move.
Late line movement is caused by the amount placed on the side or total, but doesn't mean it was caused by a "sharp" or "wiseguy". It is caused by the system picking up the amount of money wagered. At Pinnacle, seems that a dime will move it slightly (i.e. -110 to -111). The wager could come from anyone with the money. Thinking that it is a sharp move is an oversimplification and can cost a player who is strictly playing the movement without knowing the source behind the move.
if i had the balls, i would fund my pinnacle account with $20,000 and bet every single time i see a + next to a line. i'd probably make a fortune.
I don't know how much you are joking but IMO you are on the right track. It's a bit more complicated than you state but there are certain situations where, whenever I see line of +200 or more, I bet it. No capping involved. Just place a unit on it and add up the profit at the end of the month.
It's a big part of how I make my living.
Some situations it doesn't work - like with ncaab moneylines it's a disaster - but there are baseball, boxing, tennis, NBA, NFL, ncaaf situations. It's still important to shop outside Pinny because, if you have enough books, you'll still find an even better line a lot of the time and that makes a huge difference. And it's not completely simple; sometimes you have to narrow it down a bit and, rather than just bet all the dogs on MLB alternate runlines, only look at those that are American League away dogs. That kind of thing. It's a good idea to do a lot of test bets on a spreadsheet before you start putting real money on it.
But in my experience, your simple idea has a lot of strength to it.
I don't know how much you are joking but IMO you are on the right track. It's a bit more complicated than you state but there are certain situations where, whenever I see line of +200 or more, I bet it. No capping involved. Just place a unit on it and add up the profit at the end of the month.
It's a big part of how I make my living.
Some situations it doesn't work - like with ncaab moneylines it's a disaster - but there are baseball, boxing, tennis, NBA, NFL, ncaaf situations. It's still important to shop outside Pinny because, if you have enough books, you'll still find an even better line a lot of the time and that makes a huge difference. And it's not completely simple; sometimes you have to narrow it down a bit and, rather than just bet all the dogs on MLB alternate runlines, only look at those that are American League away dogs. That kind of thing. It's a good idea to do a lot of test bets on a spreadsheet before you start putting real money on it.
But in my experience, your simple idea has a lot of strength to it.
i'm not talking about money line dogs. i am talking about when the world has the knicks -5 -110 and pinnacle has the knicks -5 +102. i would pound the knicks at pinny.
i think many people think the play is the other side at a book other than pinnacle. i just don't think the numbers bear that out. i don't think pinny is as good as everyone thinks they are.
i think many people think the play is the other side at a book other than pinnacle. i just don't think the numbers bear that out. i don't think pinny is as good as everyone thinks they are.
Two things I think about the Pinny lean:
1. It is more valuable early than late
2. It predicts line movement more than it does results
I think if you looked at every, let's say CBB, line from open to close I think you would find that at one time or another both sides will have a + odds next to it. So if you are simply looking for plus odds and assume the other side is their line then it will just depend on when you are looking. Naturally this makes no sense and has no value. You have to consider early vs. late as well the spread vs. the rest of the market. It's not so simple. But again, it's very common to see Team A at + odds most of the day and then in the last 30 minutes Team B has + odds. So what's the lean? Of course Team A will probably be -5.5+101 early and then Team B +4+101 late. So where's the lean? It's more about the spreads than the odds.
1. It is more valuable early than late
2. It predicts line movement more than it does results
I think if you looked at every, let's say CBB, line from open to close I think you would find that at one time or another both sides will have a + odds next to it. So if you are simply looking for plus odds and assume the other side is their line then it will just depend on when you are looking. Naturally this makes no sense and has no value. You have to consider early vs. late as well the spread vs. the rest of the market. It's not so simple. But again, it's very common to see Team A at + odds most of the day and then in the last 30 minutes Team B has + odds. So what's the lean? Of course Team A will probably be -5.5+101 early and then Team B +4+101 late. So where's the lean? It's more about the spreads than the odds.
D2:
Let's use a current example on tomorrow night's big game between North Carolina and Duke. Pinnacle opened it at EV (-108/-102) so were shading it to North Carolina and it continued to rise as high as -2.5 (-108/-102). But saw it drop back this afternoon to -2 (-109/-101). It seems apparent the current shade remains with the Tarheels, but my sense is that tomorrow Blue Devil money will bring the line back down a bit. So as you state, early money, late money, which really matters? Thoughts?
Let's use a current example on tomorrow night's big game between North Carolina and Duke. Pinnacle opened it at EV (-108/-102) so were shading it to North Carolina and it continued to rise as high as -2.5 (-108/-102). But saw it drop back this afternoon to -2 (-109/-101). It seems apparent the current shade remains with the Tarheels, but my sense is that tomorrow Blue Devil money will bring the line back down a bit. So as you state, early money, late money, which really matters? Thoughts?
Right now it's UNC -2.5-101. I don't think we can assume they took heavy UNC when they moved it up. They may very well have taken some really sharp money on UNC and then jerked it up to +1+105 while others still had 1 flat. Well then they're probably getting fat on +1+ money all the while knowing they would move it higher, probably as high as they can, only to then shade the other side and oddes with a tantalizing number of -101 on UNC -2.5. So what woulld they be sitting on? UNC -1-105 and +2.5+101. You give me that every day and I'm rolling in cash even if I'm booking lots of -101's and +105's. Pinny would waqnt UNC to win by 1 or 2.
My theory is that in large part Pinnacle is one big middles bettor.
My theory is that in large part Pinnacle is one big middles bettor.
